The Future of Airline Aviation

Future press release:

Today Very Cheap Airlines, Inc. announced that they will be lowering ticket prices by an average of ten percent below the already amazingly low prices they currently charge.  Asked how they are able to do this the CEO credited the huge advances in technology. "Our tests of pilotless aircraft have been very successful.  We of course will continue to have a pilot in the cockpit, but this is mostly for passenger peace of mind. In general the automated systems will be operating the aircraft.  They will be monitored by our team of ground based systems operators and technology experts who will be able to trouble shoot and resolve any technology issues that arise.  Our very good looking pilot will be there to turn on the back up auto pilot thereby guiding the aircraft to a safe landing at the more than 100 airports specially equipped to handle just such an emergency.  Flying has never been safer."

Next month it will be thirteen years since I left the flight deck for a new career,a career I never thought I'd pursue. When people asked me why I left I tell them I love to fly, but I don't enjoy being a pilot for a living. Truth be told, the airlines soon won't need pilots.

In his testimony before congress Captain Sullenberger, he of A320 seaplane fame, tried to educate the politicians.  It seems only the film maker Michael Moore noticed, he writes:

You know, maybe it's just me, but the two occupations whose workers shouldn't be humpin' a second job are brain surgeons and airline pilots. Call me crazy. (See Huffington Post)

No one noticed because this is where the industry is headed, and has been headed since the late 20th century.  We now have trains without engineers and soon enough we will have planes without pilots.  Sure they will still need a human up front to reassure the passengers, maybe even two, but that will be their only true role.  And if that is the true role you don't need a very expensive human, you just need to do the theater right.

Aviation has always used theater to make the traveling public feel safer.  Impressive uniforms and glamorous attendants and imposing terminals and all the other so called intangibles that go into making the passenger feel safe -- all theater. 

In the regulated industry I knew until I was an adult airline pilots were compensated well.  Sure they would probably spend part of their career walking a picket line, but they would ultimately be compensated well.  After 30 or 40 years of sleepless nights away from home, being constantly monitored at work, putting your career on the line every six months in the simulator, and (not well understood then) being exposed to very high levels of radiation, there would be a comfortable retirement in which to enjoy the grandchildren and the fruits of some very hard labor.  

None of that has changed, except the rewards.  Pilots still spend countless nights away from home, they endure more monitoring than ever before, a bad day in the simulator can still end their careers and the exposure to radiation is widely believed to be the reason pilots and flight attendants have a well documented reduction in their life spans.  Except for the lucky few old timers they don't get paid very well, they have no retirement security, no job security and no career security, and they are treated worse each day by the management and the industry.  

So why is there no general outcry?  More and more people fly each year, they willingly put themselves at extreme risk because they don't see the risk.  Airline accidents are rare and unless there is a crisis most people tend to believe all is well.   The industry is counting on technology to keep the accident rate low.  They are betting, using the public's lives, that they will be able to use cheaper and cheaper labor for every job, including pilots.  And as the compensation gets worse, the most capable will go elsewhere.  More people who love flying would rather be doing something else for a living.

The new standard for hiring pilots - looks and bearing.  The airlines will be hiring out of work actors.  They work cheap, they look good and they can study their lines while they fly.  If the aircraft loses communications with the ground based technicians a warning light and buzzer will wake the pilot and if the airplane has not already switched to emergency landing mode, the pilot will push that button.  It is a win/win for all.

Oh yes, back to US 1549, everyone would have died.

I love flying, I just don't like being a pilot for a living.